With this small essay
I would like to make you feel unsettled and maybe even a little bit guilty, but
not without hope.
Extremism
Takes A Small Blow
Our government
continues to say Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki needs to start making some
tough decisions. Presumably this would mean taking on the extremist elements
within the Iraqi government. But the most obvious victories in the fight
against extremism have been the firing of Donald Rumsfeld and the lessening of Dick Cheney’s influence, as
evidenced (I hope) by the newfound willingness to sit down and talk with Iran (and by that I really mean the
rest of the world).
I believe the ‘06
congressional election clearly served as a rebuke to the Bush administration’s
arrogance. And Rumsfeld was fired. Good. This is what we
all wanted. But to simply read the election as a mandate for immediate
withdrawal is, in my opinion, overreaching.
What
about the congress?
By exerting political
pressure against the war and pushing for timetables, perhaps the democrats have
added to the sense of urgency in the Iraqi government to take some difficult
decisions such as allowing our forces to essentially expel al-Sadr as well as
moving forward with oil sharing and other issues of reconciliation. So I grant
that the political weight-throwing by democrats may have had a positive
effect—sort of a good cop bad cop. But here is where the democrats need to be
careful. Pressure is good, but actually stating the date of our departure is
certainly not good military if not political
strategy. If we set a departure date certain, there will be no incentive
for reconciliation, at least not on the part of extremists on all sides. Instead,
each faction will concentrate on gearing up for the full=scale civil war to
follow. Congress should, therefore, either defund the war right now, and accept
the consequences, or else simply continue to threaten without actually doing
anything and hope for the best.
What do
we hope for?
The best hope for
stability in Iraq is for the Sunni insurgents to recognize that they must
accept their 30% role. I suspect the majority of Iraqis (on both sides) are
ready for reconciliation, only there are extremist Sunni insurgents, along with
al-Qaida, who are determined to continue the violence
it seems no matter what. These are our enemy, not the Shiites. However, it is
essential to limit the activity of the Shiite death squads (either by fighting
directly or perhaps simply embedding with and babysitting them). Doing so may
give moderate Sunni leaders the necessary breathing room to gain more
influence. And so far, the surge seems to have begun this trend. Al-Sadr is in
Iran and Shiite militia activities are down. The longer it remains this way the
better. We must give the surge a chance to bring some degree of stability. Then
we must hope for a reconciliation process within the
Iraqi government. If this process does not occur within a reasonable amount of
time, we should then leave. If the violence cannot be reduced by our current
strategy, it is clear the majority of Americans would support withdrawal. John
McCain would say we cannot accept defeat, but he is alone. If after we leave a
relatively stable situation, the sectarian violence does resume, America will
come face to face with an extremely difficult decision. Whether or not we
decide to sacrifice more American lives at that point, there can be no question
we remain morally obligated to provide substantial material and logistic
support in such a way so as to minimize death and
destruction on all sides. To not do so would, in my opinion, be about the most
selfish and immoral
behavior imaginable.
Note to
Democrats
If you believe that
simply pulling out as soon as possible is the way to go, then you should vote
to defund the war. Otherwise, you should continue to play good cop bad cop.
What needs to happen is for reasonable democrats and republicans to get
together behind closed doors and agree on this strategy. Democrats should not
engage in political gamesmanship at the expense of the nation’s best interests.
The argument that it’s okay to play politics because it will help you win more
power, which you will then use to “at some future time” do the right thing, is flawed in my opinion.
It’s just as bad as the “ends justify the means” philosophy which led to this
war in the first place. And it’s also arrogant because it assumes that you know what the right thing to do is,
which of course all senators do. Democrats (and by democrats I mean Chuck
Schumer) really need to be honest with themselves. House democrats are
attempting to pass an emergency war spending bill which sets timetables for
withdrawal. However, in order to pass the bill, they have included various pork
expenditures to entice undecided members. I believe any member who requires
such enticements in order to make a vote of conscience has, in fact, no
conscience. This gamesmanship is pathetic, and I would be ashamed as a
constituent to think my congressman took my personal needs into consideration
when voting on issues of national security.
What
about troop morale?
I myself refuse to
believe what any poll, pundit, politician or military spokesman has to say on
this matter. So I do not see how this issue can or should really play a major
role in any honest debate. If I had to guess, I would tend to think the divided
support for the war hurts rather than helps troop morale. But it seems to be
the inevitable price one pays in order to have our particular brand of
democracy. So for now I see no alternative. I also can’t imagine how extended
tours of duty and inadequate support for the wounded does much for morale
either.
March
2007
A new and wonderful essay by Noah Feldman. 4/07